Who will reach the winning post in Zimbabwe’s August election? Zanu (PF) President Emmerson Mnangagwa, aged 80, or Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), 45-year-old Nelson Chamisa?

Mnangagwa has been insecure since he was elevated to the presidency following the 2017 military coup against Robert Mugabe. Apart from internal Zanu (PF) foes, he faced civil society critics and opponents. He has increasingly used violence and the judiciary to silence and detain the latter. There was no electoral system reform, and despite the constitution, the diaspora was excluded from the forthcoming election; freedom of speech has been threatened by repressive legislation.

Perhaps the economy may decide the outcome. 

The inestimable “Daily Maverick (DM)” pointed to the sick local currency. In 2017, the Zim dollar stood at 3 to one US Dollar. Currently, it trades on the black market at about 8,000-to-1 to the US dollar. This is devastating for a President who promised to turn around the economy. Remember his slogan that Zimbabwe is open for business? It was but for business with the elite. 

The President’s business deals supporting his political activities rely on his partnership with elitist cartels. Thus, leading Zanu (PF) leaders avoided import duties or smuggled banned exports such as nickel and lithium concentrates, according to the DM. This and other sources of profit have enriched the cartels while costing the public purse many millions. As a result, the Reserve Bank printed money, which inevitably led to the worthlessness of the currency and the galloping inflation. 

Mnangagwa’s problem is that the population blames the collapse of the Zim Dollar, which impoverished them, on his corruption, not on the official bleat against sanction and disloyal businessmen. The President reacted by showering the elites – politicians, military, civil servants, and traditional leaders – with cash and vehicles to keep them in line, for even members of his supporters have criticized his economic policies. These have indeed been erratic, in particular concerning money policy.

This has strengthened all opponents so that the polls are unfavorable for Mnangagwa. Chamisa has gleefully used the economic distress to attack the President during his campaign. However, the polls may not correctly forecast the latter’s defeat. There is a hardcore, particularly in the rural areas, that is wedded to Zanu (PF). His defeat cannot be taken for granted, and in the past, Zanu (PF) used violence and repression to stamp down all opposition to remain in power. It is feared that this may be repeated so voters stay away from the polling booths or lead them to vote for the ruling party. This may end any hope of change.