I was recently asked why many African countries are bedevilled by governments unwilling to accept and suppress any dissent, labelling the opposition bad apples and worse while disregarding the deep divide between the greedy, newly rich party elite and the poverty-stricken masses, endemic corruption, stagnant economies, economic and political refugees. Given the autocratic tendency and kleptocracy of many post-independence political elites and many more issues, what does the future hold? The one-time liberation movements turned into party governments considering it their right to rule. They will not go easily.
I read an article this month by South Africa’s Prof. Roger Southall on State capture and the similarity between South Africa and Zimbabwe. In the latter case, the economy has been captured by the former liberation party Zanu and its allied friends in the private sector; in South Africa, the State Capture of the Zuma years (2009-2918) was partial and is currently under assault by the Zondo Commission Report.
Once the final third part of the Zondo probe is published later this month, it is up to his successor President Cyril Ramaphosa to implement the recommendations and follow up the evidence. The questions are: will the Zuma faction permit this? Has the President the determination and the will to see former or present high-ranking officials defend themselves in court, including the former President?
South Africa’s economy is in a bad state with a poor outlook, high unemployment and black mass poverty. The ANC is riddled with factionalism, enormous corruption and poor polling. Prof. Southall sees South Africa as adrift and in danger of following Zanu in claiming control of the government and defying a democratic decision, should it lose the 2024 election.
The problem of corruption is not confined to these two countries. In Malawi this month sacked the cabinet, replacing it with a new crew as several Ministers and leading civil servants face corruption charges. In January the Catholic Bishops had said that corruption was deeply embedded in the country and hard to eliminate. This evil caused unspeakable suffering of the majority faced by dire poverty. This too is not confined to this country or the other two mentioned above. Others are unfortunately similarly afflicted.
To return to Prof. Southall. In this article, he identified three characteristics of liberation movements. Firstly that they justifiably claim the credit for their country’s independence, yet they brutally suppress dissent. Secondly, the new governments quickly created new class structures: while inheriting political not economic power dominated by the private sector, they filled state structures with party members, which weakened the divide between state and government. By seizing the heights of the economy, a predatory party bourgeoisie was created which allowed its cronies access to posts and contracts. Thirdly liberation movements are torn between liberal constitutionalism and the desire to monopolize the domination of society. All this and more has caused a democratic and economic decline.
The article concludes that the liberation movements have fulfilled their task. They should leave the stage “a daunting and necessary agenda”.
However, as Prof. Southall also pointed out, it needs an opposition party or coalition able to replace the ANC backed up by popular support. If this were to happen, it might trigger change elsewhere.