It has happened! Of the 98% of votes known in South Africa’s 2024 election, the once triumphant ANC, acclaimed in 1994 in the 400-seat Parliament, has forfeited its majority! It stands at around 40% after 30 years.
The largest opposition party remained the Democratic Alliance, with 22%; the third is the come-back-ex-President Jacob Zuma’s new party, MK, with 13%, though Zuma can’t take a Parliamentary seat. The extreme EFF is down to 9%, IFP stands at 3.5%, and the Patriotic Alliance took 2%.
What next?
With new post-election turbulence and deal-making underway, a new phase of coalition and cooperation has begun. In 14 days, the election results will be announced in terms of the constitution, so time is of the essence.
Will President Cyril Ramaphosa resign or continue to lead the ANC?
What new coalitions, both nationally and regionally, will emerge? Is a DA decision possible to team up with the ANC and IFP to stop a frightening ANC-EFF/MK get-together? Can MK forge a strong alternative coalition with other parties?
What will politicians offer other parties in exchange for their cooperation?
Can new coalitions solve the country’s problems, including corruption and mismanagement?
The shape of the new coalitions and deal-making could affect the future welfare of the country – or that of politicians and parties.